Good Saturday afternoon!  I hope your weekend is going great!  Mine is ok so far.  I have been fighting a migraine the past two days and I am trying to get this sucker under control.  I have daily migraines, meaning I at least have symptoms each day.  However, the past two days have been bad days, ugh.  I am going to try to eat something after I do this and hope that peps me up!

The weather is fantastic outside so I hope you get a chance to get out and enjoy it.  Just so you know I will start expanding on this website over the next couple of months so that you have all kinds of wonderful things you can find on here.  I am working on it!

Lets check in on Matthew.  He actually made a brief landfall.  However, the strongest part of the hurricane is always on the right side.  Now the right side has always been out to sea and that has been the best part of the storm.  Plus, it has been over shallow waters the past couple of days and it has been slowly weakening which is good news.

hurricane

In the purple, you can see where he has gone.  In the red, you can see where he will probably go.  He will weaken into a tropical storm but could actually turn back around and hit Florida if you can believe that.

For us, we will have great temperatures over the next couple of days.  I am watching our next system that will work in on Monday and Tuesday.  Check this system out.

tuesday-500

This is interesting.  This is the upper level map for Tuesday.  You can see the subtropical Jet to the south.  The main polar jet with the ridge across the pacific NW and then the system dipping into the central plains.  Now remember, we are in the new pattern.  However, the cycle (distance between systems) has been cycling for a few months now.  We have seen this before.  Lets go back to August 19th.

august-19th

Now the Jet was much weaker and we were in the old pattern at this time but the systems were coming in on schedule.  However, when we see this part of the pattern rolling through, this will give us arctic outbreaks.  We didn’t really see this last winter.  I see at least two arctic outbreaks per cycle.  That means we should get AT LEAST 4 ARCTIC OUT BREAKS THIS WINTER. I actually expect more than that.  This is what we need for winter storms to set up across the region.  I will show you another example of this in a second.  This system with give us some showers on late Tuesday and Wednesday.

precip-wedneady

Temperatures will briefly cool down behind this front, but we will warm right back up toward next weekend.  Lets jump into the following week and look at Monday the 17th. This is another example I wanted to show you.

next-monday

Now, the two L’s are coming in right on schedule.  However, look at the jet.  The old Jet with the old pattern would have brought them in into the Pacific NW.  The new Jet with the new pattern drives them into northern California.  The bottom line here is, we are in the same cycle as we have been in the past few month but a new pattern.  The new pattern is very promising for a much better winter.  The way I see this systems coming in will give us much better set-ups for winter storms.  I want to see how these systems track through October so I can see how they will track through the winter.  I know when they will be here, now I am figuring out what they will do.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

This week:  Warming up through the week with a few showers possible on Wednesday.

October 16th-22nd:  Warm with showers on Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday with temperatures turning cooler for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return for the weekend.

October 23rd-29th: A mild start to the week with a storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  This will drop our temperatures off for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return for the rest of the week with another system working in from Thursday through Saturday.  This will give us rain chances once again.

October 30th-November 5th:  Rain chances continue with another storm system through the middle of the week.  Much colder temperatures work in by the middle of the week.  We will slowly warm back up toward the weekend with rain chances returning for Saturday.

November 6th-12th:  Rain chances through the middle of the week with mild temperatures.  Cooler temperatures work right back in for the second half of the week.

November 13th-19th:  Mild through the first half of the week with cold temperatures working in for the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week with a slow warming trend through the week.  Most of the week will be dry until rain chances by Saturday.