#severe

Midday Sunday Blog: Severe weather ramps up this week!

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I hope you are having a great weekend and a fantastic Sunday so far.  Mine has been pretty good!  I have been trying to get all kinds of stuff done around the house this weekend and outside.  Also, I want to say congrats to one of my co-workers and great friends Mike Olmstead on the marriage yesterday with Cynthia.  You two make a beautiful couple and I wish you both the best of luck!

The weather is great for us today with temperatures shooting through the 70s.  It is windy, but I am going to enjoy it.  I need to mow and I want to get the boat cleaned up for the lake season.

boat

However, it will be a busy week with the weather as we have several storm systems working through.  A moderate to strong system works through the northern plains today with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  However, most of the moisture will stay across the northern half of the central plains.

5 pm

Here is a look at 5pm.  You can see strong to severe storms with the main threat of hail and wind across eastern NB and stretching south into north central KS.  Now these storms will lift NE, so they will stay mainly north of the Joplin metro, but could affect the KC metro after dark.  Lets move to 10-12 late this evening.

midnight

The storms lift into Iowa and NW MO.  Farther south in the Joplin Metro, we could see a random isolated storm tonight, but that would be about it.  This system will push east pretty quick on Monday, but with the front hanging out across the central plains there is a slight chance for a pop-up storm on Monday.

Monday precip

Now we need to focus on Tuesday, the next big storm system working in.  This system will have all of the ingredients to produce a fairly nice size severe weather outbreak.  At least for my viewing are it should be our 5th of the season.  Lets take a look.  Here is our storm system on Tuesday.

500 Tuesday

I put the red line on the map which shows it leaning back toward the NW.  This means it has a negative tilt which shows how powerful this guy is.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern as we saw this in our last cycle just 49.5 days ago.  Lets go back to March 7th.

March 7th

This system also have the negative tilt and gave us thunderstorms.  A dryline will set-up just west of us on Tuesday evening.  A dryline separates the warm moist air and the warm dry air.  Thunderstorms love to blow along the dryline.

Dryline

Also I want to show you are cape, cape is in a sense the stability or how unstable the atmo will get.  Right along this line the atmosphere will become very unstable.

Cape

This means by evening strong to severe storms will fire from NE KS, Central KS south into central OK.

Tuesday evening

These should become severe quickly with hail, wind and a few tornadoes that could be on the strong side.  Thunderstorms will track NE into Eastern OK, SE KS, SW MO, Western MO through the evening hours.

Tuesday night

As the evening pushes on the tornado threat will slow drop and the hail and wind threat will become the main threat.  However, this is an event we want to watch closely over the next few days.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.