Good Tuesday morning! I hope you have had a great start to the work week and a great holiday weekend. We had a pretty good weekend. My son of course got a few items for Easter and we did a few things over the weekend. We tried painting eggs and hey he enjoyed it. I thought it left a pretty good mess, but at least he had fun.
Temperatures warmed back up on Monday and will continue to warm today and Wednesday. However, the winds will start to pick back up as well. So lets turn to our next storm system that is right on track with the Heady Pattern. Remember, we are right on a 49.5 day cycle this year. The cycle will last a few more months before it takes a turn which will will get into here later. So lets look at this next system. Today looks great across the central plains.
Temperatures look great on Wednesday as well.
However, our next system pushes in fast on Wednesday.
You can see the swirl across NW KS, that is the center of the energy for the next wave on Wednesday. This is coming out with perfect timing to give us a severe weather shot tomorrow afternoon. However, when I look at the map above I see a positive tilt. This means the system is leaning forward and not backward. On the other hand we do have pretty good shear (wind changing with height) and moisture is already feeding back into the plain states. One big key here is the surface winds will be out of the south or just a hair out of the SSE. This usually points to a better shot for stronger supercells across the region. Back to the other hand, we will be strong capped (lid on the atmosphere, keeping storms from firing up) which means we won’t have a widespread outbreak of storms. So with that said, lets look at what the NAM model projects for Wednesday evening.
You can see the area of Low pressure across eastern Nebraska with a dry line stretching south into eastern KS. The NAM model want thunderstorms to fire along the dry line during the evening hours. So here is my take with everything mentioned above. At this time, I think we will have SCATTERED strong to severe storms that will develop after 4 pm tomorrow from SE NB into NE KS and east central KS. These will most likely become severe with severe thunderstorm warning with hail and gusty winds. We also can’t rule out a few tornadoes. This would affect areas from St. Joe, KC, Lawrence, Topeka, Emporia to Ft. Scott. As we work farther south into SE KS and NE OK, I expect isolated supercells. Isolated means one here and one there. These could go severe with mainly a hail threat as these will be more of an elevated threat. A little father south in central OK, again we will see isolated supercells, but these will have more of a tornado threat due to the low level jet being stronger and some great upper level divergence. All of these storms will plow east and become a line during the evening and start to fall apart becoming just a hail threat. Of course as things evolve over the next 36 hours I will keep you updated.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
Twitter: @DougHeady #headypattern
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: Mild start to the week with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Slight chances for storms return on Friday as well.
April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday. Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.
April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week. Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.
April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week. Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.
May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe. Mild and dry the rest of the week.
May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Cooling down for the weekend.
May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday. Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday. Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.
May 22nd-28th: Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures the second half of the week.
May 29th-June4th: Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week. Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.
June 5th-11th: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday. Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.
June 12th-18th: Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.