#thunderstorms

Midday Sunday Blog: Severe weather ramps up this week!

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I hope you are having a great weekend and a fantastic Sunday so far.  Mine has been pretty good!  I have been trying to get all kinds of stuff done around the house this weekend and outside.  Also, I want to say congrats to one of my co-workers and great friends Mike Olmstead on the marriage yesterday with Cynthia.  You two make a beautiful couple and I wish you both the best of luck!

The weather is great for us today with temperatures shooting through the 70s.  It is windy, but I am going to enjoy it.  I need to mow and I want to get the boat cleaned up for the lake season.

boat

However, it will be a busy week with the weather as we have several storm systems working through.  A moderate to strong system works through the northern plains today with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  However, most of the moisture will stay across the northern half of the central plains.

5 pm

Here is a look at 5pm.  You can see strong to severe storms with the main threat of hail and wind across eastern NB and stretching south into north central KS.  Now these storms will lift NE, so they will stay mainly north of the Joplin metro, but could affect the KC metro after dark.  Lets move to 10-12 late this evening.

midnight

The storms lift into Iowa and NW MO.  Farther south in the Joplin Metro, we could see a random isolated storm tonight, but that would be about it.  This system will push east pretty quick on Monday, but with the front hanging out across the central plains there is a slight chance for a pop-up storm on Monday.

Monday precip

Now we need to focus on Tuesday, the next big storm system working in.  This system will have all of the ingredients to produce a fairly nice size severe weather outbreak.  At least for my viewing are it should be our 5th of the season.  Lets take a look.  Here is our storm system on Tuesday.

500 Tuesday

I put the red line on the map which shows it leaning back toward the NW.  This means it has a negative tilt which shows how powerful this guy is.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern as we saw this in our last cycle just 49.5 days ago.  Lets go back to March 7th.

March 7th

This system also have the negative tilt and gave us thunderstorms.  A dryline will set-up just west of us on Tuesday evening.  A dryline separates the warm moist air and the warm dry air.  Thunderstorms love to blow along the dryline.

Dryline

Also I want to show you are cape, cape is in a sense the stability or how unstable the atmo will get.  Right along this line the atmosphere will become very unstable.

Cape

This means by evening strong to severe storms will fire from NE KS, Central KS south into central OK.

Tuesday evening

These should become severe quickly with hail, wind and a few tornadoes that could be on the strong side.  Thunderstorms will track NE into Eastern OK, SE KS, SW MO, Western MO through the evening hours.

Tuesday night

As the evening pushes on the tornado threat will slow drop and the hail and wind threat will become the main threat.  However, this is an event we want to watch closely over the next few days.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Friday midday April 22nd: Warmer temperatures with a few severe weather threats!

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Happy Friday!  I hope your week was great and enjoying your Friday so far. Mine has been pretty good, just a little tired.  Up early to take my son to school and have been running around in the yard so far this morning.  Wow, what a great day!  Temperatures are going to continue to warm up with sunny skies.  Most of us should go in the 73-76 range.

Temps today

Even warmer tomorrow as we press 80.

Saturday temps

However, when we look at the Heady Pattern, we are going to jump back into the active stretch of the pattern here over the next few weeks.  Remember, we are in a 49.5 day cycle that will last a few more months before the new one kicks off during the middle of the summer.  We are right on target with where we should be with our next storm systems working in next week.  In fact, we have 3 systems next week rolling through.  The first one is on Sunday.

Sunday 500

The low is up in northern Nebraska so that puts the best energy and lift just NW of us in the red circle.  Plus this system doesn’t have a ton of moisture but it will fire showers and thunderstorms by Sunday.  The ones that do pop-up could be strong to severe.

Precip Sunday evening

Next system rolls in on Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

This is a much stronger system with a neg. tilt meaning it is leaning back toward the NW.  This will provide more energy for the system which I circled in the red having the best shot for severe storms on Tuesday evening.

Tuesday precip

I will keep you updated.

#headypattern #mowx #kswx #okwx #arwx

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A few scattered storms Sunday and into Monday.  This will be pretty scattered but the ones that get going could be strong to severe.  A much stronger system moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  A higher threat for severe storms on Tuesday evening and into Wednesday.  Even a third system works in late Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

March 30th Severe weather blog

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great Wednesday so far.  Mine has been pretty good, just plugging away at some work as usual.  Of course I have been glancing over today’s severe weather set-up for the central plains.  It is an interesting set-up, and something we want to watch.  This storm fall right in the pattern and actually all the way down to the micro-scale.  We are going to keep seeing this set-up through the spring with drylines setting up across central and eastern KS and OK.  This is our second one in a week and we will continue to see them over the next couple of months.  Lets look at today.

Early Afternoon

I put a red circle around the areas with a severe threat.  The orange circle are the areas with a little higher threat.  The higher threats will be St. Joe, KC, Lawrence, Emporia, Chanute, Yates Center, Fredonia.  Also areas farther south from Dallas into SE OK and a good chunk of AR.  Scattered and I do mean scattered thunderstorms will pop-up over the next few hours across the region and push through during the afternoon hours.

3 pm storms

Here is a look at 3pm.  Scattered thunderstorms with mainly small hail through AR, OK, MO and KS during the afternoon hours.  Some clearing will take place ahead of the dryline (black dotted line) out west and storms will start going probably around 4pm.  These storms will race ENE across KS and OK.  Lets work through the evening hours.

5pm storms

Here is a look at 5 pm.  The storms now in eastern KS south into OK, could be strong to severe.  They should have strong winds with hail and possibly a few isolated tornadoes.  However, they will be scattered, they won’t be a line of storms.  They will continue to press NE.

7 pm storms

Let move to 7pm. The dryline/front now is pushing the state line of KS/MO.  Hail and wind is the primary threat with still a few isolated tornadoes possible.  However, again you can see these storms are scattered.  At this time the storms will start to quickly break up.

9 pm storms

Isolated storms by 9pm.  However, the severe threat starts to decrease and the storms start working east quickly.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild start to the week with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Slight chances for storms return on Friday as well.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.