Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good so far.  I had the day off on Wednesday as I had to shoot up to KC and go to my migraine doctor for my normal check up.  Of course being from KC and knowing the city like the back of my hand, I didn’t make it out of the city before getting some BBQ.  Then I headed home and went to my sons baseball game.  He is getting better as he got a couple of hits last night.  He just turned 7 and I feel for him as it is so important to get a hit.  It is amazing what you forget when you get older.  I am 37 and with my son being 30 years younger you really get to see how hard it is to be a kid.  Yes we all know being an adult is hard, but remember being a kid?  Your whole world is everything on a micro scale.  Everything that happens is so important.  As you age you just don’t care about that stuff and you worry about your family, job, others and relationships.  However, I was proud of him as any father is of a child when they aren’t striking out!

Well we have some massive changes in the Heady Pattern.  Remember the pattern sets up the 3rd week of September each and every year.  When I say the pattern, that means this is how storm systems will react.  Now in that pattern we have a recurring cycle each year where in a sense the same systems repeat over and over again.  This years cycle has been about 49 days.  So that means the systems that roll through today are similar to about 49 days ago.  However, the cycle doesn’t set up the same time the pattern does.  In fact the new cycle is setting up right now!!!!  I already have a pretty good idea what the new cycle is going to be give or take about 3 days for the next 12-14 months.  So the 49 day cycle will slowly fade over the next few months as the new cycle gets stronger and stronger.  This is all part of the Heady Pattern and being influenced by El Nino and La Nina.  The new cycle will be longer than 49 days.  I actually prefer a longer cycle as we have 2 or 3 bigger systems with-in the cycle during the winter season.  I will continue to update you on this.  Oh and so you know, I am super excited as the earliest that I have ever even had a hint of the new cycle is June.  So for me to get it nailed down on May 18th is a massive break through for me.  Lets look at El Nino that is almost about dead.

El Nino

Last November, we had a near record El Nino.  It has now decreased to well near dead.  Why?  La Nina is coming on strong.

La Nina

We need to see how the Heady Pattern sets up, but most likely we will have a much colder winter with some snow!

A few showers will try to work back into the southern central plains for us today.  We have a weak upper level wave working through.

500

We will have light scattered showers working back in this afternoon.

Noon precip

These will become a little more widespread during the overnight hours tonight.

Thursday late evening precip

Have a great day!

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Scattered thunderstorms picking up on Monday and Tuesday.  A few of these could be on the strong to severe side.  A second wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.  Temperatures cool down a bit heading into the holiday weekend.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances returning for the rest of the holiday weekend.  As a slow moving wave works through, temperatures will cool down a bit with scattered showers through the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up heading into the weekend.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week before we rebound late in the week with slight chances for thunderstorms for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Really heating up this week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 19th-25th:  The first half of the week will be hot with slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  Cooling down a bit for the rest of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Thunderstorm chances work into the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday which is the holiday weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with scattered thunderstorms for the 4th and 5th. Staying hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms again for the weekend.

July 10th-16th:  Starting the week mild with a warming trend through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  However, most of the week will be dry.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.