Thursday Blog: The Heady Pattern continues to evolve!

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Happy Thursday!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has gone pretty good, busy but good.  I am actually in Kansas City right now doing a some family stuff.  So I have been off work the past couple of days.  I also had to go to my migraine doctor yesterday which is always a thrill.  I have awful daily migraines that I have fought my entire life.  The appointment was fine, but I really wish my doctor would try some new things that would attempt to prevent the migraines more instead of just pain management.  Maybe someday I will actually be pain free!  Heck if I could go a week without a migraine I would be as happy as can be.

The weather is great here in the midwest.  We had a strong cold front slip through a couple days ago and we are seeing great fall-like temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows all the way down into the lower 40s.  This is a nice real taste of fall.  What a way to start the month of October!  These great temperatures will continue over the next few days.  Remember the Heady Pattern is completely set and what we are seeing now is the new pattern.  Now, it is still disorganized as the Jet Stream is still fairly weak this time of the year but we are in the new pattern.  The new cycle has been set for a few months now and continue to push along.  As the new pattern and a stronger Jet Stream work together over the next couple of months, we will see what this baby can do for the entire US through the winter and spring months.  So when I am long range forecasting now, I able to use the new pattern and cycle.  However, seeing exactly what will happen over the next few months is still a little difficult because I am looking at the new cycle with how it reacted with the old pattern.  The good news is I know when storm systems will work in and when we will see cold snaps.  I can tell when our rain and snow chances will be.  As we work through the next 4-6 weeks I will continue to see evolve with the new pattern and get a great idea how the winter looks across the US.  I will post a winter forecast just before Thanksgiving.  So lets see what is going on right now.

sureface

The main Jet Stream is still sitting well north of the region and we have these disorganized waves across the country.  You can see the wave out west, across the western plaines and the system up the eastern coast.  In our neck of the woods, we have NE winds allowing the cooler air to push south into the central plaines giving us the cooler temperatures.  This odd crazy weird little set-up is very similar to what we had during the first 10 days of August.  This big story out east is hurricane Joaquin.

joaquin

This guy is interesting.  Because we have all of these weird waves which are all cut-off from the main flow of the jet, where is he going to go.  The models are all over the place and some want to take him up the eastern seaboard early next week.  Other models would like to drive him out into the Atlantic ocean.  This is a tricky one as I think he will come close to the coast but as I have looked at the latest wind profiles, he may stay just off the coast.  I will continue to watch him and see where he decides he wants to go.  Take a look at the 500mb chart for Sunday.

Sunday 500

You can see the Jet is will north into southern Canada.  However, we have waves in California, in the SE US and then our hurricane off the Atlantic coast.  We need to watch him closely, especially if you have travel plans in that direction.  Here is a look back at August, 11th.  This is the similar mess that we should see with our upper level pattern by this weekend and early next week.

Aug 11th

Here in about a week or so the Jet Stream will start dipping farther south and we will see a series of storm systems across the northern half of the country.  This means we will have more action weather wise.  We will get into this more on the next blog.

Doug

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

Next Friday:  Mild with slight chances for rain.

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

 

October 11th-17th:

A mild start to the week with temperatures warming up on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms each of those days.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the second half of the week with rain chances returning for the weekend.

October 18th-24th:

Mild with rain chances on Sunday.  Cool and dry through the middle of the week before mild temperatures return for the second half of the week.  Rain chances also return for the weekend.

October 25th-Halloween:

Mild with rain chances to start the week.  Temperatures will warm up through the week and we should be mainly dry.  We will see a bigger system rolling in which as of right I think will hold off until right after Halloween.  Let me look at this closer here in the next couple of days.

I will go out 2 more weeks on my next blog!!!!!

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

Wednesday AM Blog: The new pattern is really looking interesting!

Friday AM Blog: October should be an active month