Good Thursday evening!  I hope you have enjoyed the great weather the past few days.  I have been way under the weather and just getting into work today was a tough chore for me.  So, I have missed out on the great temperatures.  Much colder temperatures are working in over the next few days.  Let me show you what is going on with our next few storm systems.

Most of the moisture is going to stay north of us.  However, after midnight our cold front will roll through and start dropping our temperatures.  Look at the snow up north!  I would love to have some of that.  Look how much they are going to get.

For the second winter in a row we have been in a very bad pattern for winter weather.  The patterns have been fairly active, but we have really had a lack of arctic air.  We had a few blasts back in December and January, but we just can’t get it to slide south.  In Joplin, we have had 2.5″ of snow and about 3/4″ of ice.  We average 16″ per season.  I knew we would be below average this winter, but I thought we could at least get 10″.  My forecast was for 10-15″ and we aren’t going to make it.  We have only had 4.5″ over the past two seasons.  There are a few systems that we may get some winter weather (not a great chance) over the next two and a half weeks.  After that we are going to roar into severe weather season.  Instead of an April start, it should be the second half of March.  Here is where we are at in the pattern.  We are on a 57 day cycle this year and have been since early August.  Here is a look at our next system on Sunday.

I put the Jet Stream on here in purple and L’s where the systems are.  You can see the on top of us is Sunday’s, then the next one would be Tuesday’s.  Lets go back 57 days to December 31st.

These two maps are almost spot on.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cooler week, but not bad.  We will watch rain chances on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday with the next system.  Another system will roll in with rain chances on Saturday.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with 3 fast moving systems with rain chances.  Rain chances on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.  Temperatures will warm up a bit the second half of the week.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.