Good Thursday evening!  I hope you have had a great work week so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good so far.  I haven’t felt the best the past couple of days, but I am making it.  Hey the work week is almost over.  I have a lot of work to do, but I wish I was busy at work with a big snowstorm!  We have had a lack of winter weather.  Here in the Joplin area, we have had 3 very tiny little snows and a little ice event, that is it!  What is crazy is we have had big storm systems that have rolled through with heavy rains or a snow has just missed the area.  In SW MO, SE KS, NE OK and NW AR, it is a lot harder to have a big snow than what people think.  You have to be in a great pattern with upper level lows tracking to our south.  At the same time we have to have cold air in place.  We have had warm air when system have rolled through with upper level lows tracking over us or just north of us.  We are actually in a pretty active pattern, which means we will see decent amounts of thunderstorms this spring.  If we look at where the storms are tracking, I see many chances for severe weather this spring.  However, for winter weather it isn’t the best set-up.  Because we don’t have much cold air this winter, I don’t think we have much of a shot past the month of February.  It will become much harder to get a decent snow once we get into March.  So if we focus on this month, here is what I see.  Decent storm systems around the 14th, 18th and 19th, then a couple systems from the 26th-1st of March.  After that is gets much hard to get snow.  We do have a weak wave that drops down on Friday.

Friday 500

You can see the brighter colors in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.  However, there is no moisture to work with.  Look at the precip produced.

Precip Friday

There may be some sprinkles or a shower, maybe a few flurries on Friday night.  That is about it.  We will have a couple of cold fronts that shift through from Sunday through Tuesday.  This will bring down the cold Canadian air.

500 Monday

You can see the energy diving south across the eastern half of the country on Monday.  Look at the cold air it pulls south.

850 Monday

Thankfully the cold air will be short lived and shifts east pretty quickly.  By late in the week we will have a great warm-up.

850 late next week

Our system moving in on the 14th and 15th, we need to see if it will be closer to the Christmas version or the early November version.  My bet is the early November version where it was a little weaker and faster moving.  We will talk more about it next time.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

February 7th-13th:  Much colder air dives south early in the week.  At least we warm right back up late in the week and we stay dry most of the week.

February 14th-20th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Stay cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning on Thursday and Friday with our next system.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.