Good Thursday night or soon to be Friday morning.  I hope your week has been great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad, just busy as always.  I am getting some work done here at work and wanted to get a blog out as I had a little bit of down time.  I do want to say happy birthday to my sister.  She is 39 years old and the past 6 months haven’t been fun for her as she has been fighting breast cancer.  In fact on her birthday she had to have a chemo treatment but at least her last big chemo treatment.  Now for the next 8 months she is on a lower grade chemo which won’t make her as sick.

Sister

Our weather looks great again for us on Friday.  We should see plenty of sunshine with fantastic temperatures.

Friday Temps

Saturday may be a hair cooler, especially the farther north you travel as a weak front works through but still great!

Saturday temps

However, I am watching our next system which works in on Monday.  This is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.  So lets take a look.

Monday 500mb

You can see how the Jet Stream is digging across the SW US.  I put a circle around the two main waves.  This should produce showers and thunderstorms, some strong for Monday PM across the region.

Monday

Lets jump into Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

Wave one pushes into the Great Lakes as wave two becomes the dominant wave and now sits in the southern plains.  So lets go back to November 30th in the Heady Pattern.  This is two cycles ago when the Jet Stream was at a similar strength and you will see this is a very similar system.  Our cycle length is about 49.5 days and this is roughly 99-100 days ago, which is two cycles ago.

November 30th

This is the exact same system! It is a little farther north due to seasonal changes but the same system which is flat out amazing and right on time.

The cold front will drag farther south on Tuesday.

Tuesday precip

With my great skills, ha ha I drew the fronts on for you.  North of the front you have a northerly wind which will lower the severe threat.  So the strong storms on Tuesday and Wednesday will stay near the front.  Because this becomes a cut-off low, it doesn’t go anywhere.  In fact lets jump into next weekend.

Next Friday 500

Look at next Friday.  It hasn’t moved much, it is cut-off and very similar to the system above on November 30th.  If you are wonder why is it doing this?  Well, it is suppose to, this is the pattern!

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms through the week.  Best chances will be on Monday and then again late in the week.

March 13th-19th:  Mild with scattered thunderstorms on Monday and into Tuesday morning.  A second system works in Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorms.  Cooler but dry the rest of the week.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms moving in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Cooler and dry the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday.  Mild temperatures stick around through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorms return for the weekend.

April 3rd-9th:  Thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures stick around with showers through the middle of the week.  A second system with storms on Wednesday and Thursday could also have strong storms.  Cooler but dry for the rest of the week.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with a few showers early in the week.  Slight chances for thunderstorms work in for the second half of the week.

April 17th-23rd:  Up and down temperatures through the week with fast moving waves.  Slight chances for showers early in the week with these waves working through.  A better chances for thunderstorms late in the week.

April 24th-30th:  Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th:  Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system.  The rest of the week looks good.