Good Thursday afternoon.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been very busy but pretty good.  All morning I have been working on the AMS (American Meteorological Society) national conference for 2017.  The AMS is those wonderful seals that us meteorologist work our butts off for that none of you guys know what they mean, lol.  However, I have been on the national board for the past 3 years and board chair next year, so I am working on the conference location.  This summer, we are going to Austin and in 2017, I am trying to get it in KC.  The conference has never been in KC, and it is time!  Plus that is where I am from, so I am KC biased lol.

During our severe weather the other night I started doing Facebook Live broadcasts.  I thought this was great!  I was able to show everyone where the storms were, and telling everyone live what I was thinking.  I was doing this when I wasn’t on-air with cut-ins.  Plus I was able to answer questions live for viewers that wanted to know what was going to happen.  I will have to do these more often as weather events move in and are here.

Well most of us are having great weather today!  However, our next system is pushing in quickly.  Lets take a look.

500

You can see the system developing across the SW US.  Now this is right on target with the Heady Pattern.  Lets go back one cycle to March 9th.

March 9th

In March, this system became a cut-off low and dug into northern Mexico.  This time around it won’t dip as far south but still push across the south central plains.  Showers and thunderstorms will start getting going on Friday.

Surface Friday PM

However, look how far south the warm front is on Friday.  This means any big storms will stay mainly in central and southern OK and parts of Texas.

Cape Friday

Here is where the storm energy will be on Friday.  However, this will try to lift north on Saturday.

Cape Saturday

So lets break this down.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms getting going on Friday morning, but not severe across the region.

morning precip Friday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday afternoon.

afternoon precip friday

Anything severe at this time would be southern OK and northern TX.  Lets go into Friday night.

night friday precip

Strong storms now in SE KS and SW MO, but severe should stay in eastern OK, western AR and south into TX.  On Saturday afternoon, the front will quickly push east.  But there is a small window for severe storms.

saturday precip

A small window for severe storms early and mid afternoon on Saturday for central MO, SW MO south into eastern OK.  I will keep you updated.

Oh, next severe events:  Next Friday and Saturday, Thursday the 12th.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday.  Warming up with a much stronger system working in with possible severe storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: We will start the week with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday.  Staying warm through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday, but much better chances on Thursday and Friday.  On Thursday and Friday, I expect a widespread severe weather event across the central plains.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.