Tuesday 10:15AM Severe weather update

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great day so far.  Mine is rolling right along as I got up early and started doing some work and looking at all of the weather data.  Of course, if you know me I am the biggest weather nerd/geek around and I live and breath the weather.  So I have been diving into all of the data that comes out over the past couple of days to see what exactly will happen across the central plains later today and tonight.

This system is right on track with the Heady Pattern and out 49.5 day cycle.  We saw this exact system on March 7th and January 17th.  It will come back through in about 50 days once again with a summer version or shall I say more of a June version.  I will keep you updated through the day with what the changes are.  First off we have showers and thunderstorms to our north around the KC metro that will dip into central MO over the next few hours.  This will drop an outflow boundary (like a cold front) into the area.

cape

This is our cape, or energy or how unstable the atmosphere will be this afternoon.  The red and purple shows the most unstable air.  I put the dryline and the outflow boundary on the map for you.  This is important because the storms will fire this evening along the dryline out to our west.  However, this evening they will try to pop-up along the outflow boundary which will be over us.  Here is another look at this.

surface winds

Where that outflow boundary lines up, we will have surface winds trying to back to the SE.  That means if storms can fire they could rotate easily.  However, most of them will be out west along the dryline.  The whole reason I am posting this is just to show I am watching this boundary this afternoon.

Noon-4pm:  Mostly cloudy, warm and windy with a random isolated storm trying to pop-up as we get closer to 4pm.  However, most of us staying dry.

4pm precip

4pm-7pm:  Storms really get going across central KS south into central OK.  These will become severe quickly with hail, wind and some tornadoes.  Some of the tornadoes could be strong out to our west.  Most of us will have mostly cloudy skies with a few isolated storms with a low severe threat through this time with the outflow boundary trying to produce a few storms.  If some storms can pop-up, we will need to watch them.

7pm precip

7pm-10pm:  Severe thunderstorms from our west work into the area.  We will have very heavy rains with gusty winds, large hail and a tornado threat.  The tornado threat will drop some from what it will be from the 4-7pm time frame, but it will still be present and needs to be watched.

10pm precip

10pm-2am:  Showers and thunderstorms with large hail and gusty winds.  Tornado threat will continue to drop.  At this time we will have a low tornado threat.

4am precip

Most of the storms should be out of the area by 3am.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild and nice start to the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit again with mainly dry conditions heading into the weekend.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

6:10pm Severe weather updated

Monday night blog: Severe weather update for Tuesday