Good evening!  I hope your week is going great so far!  Hopefully you have gotten most of your shopping done and ready for the holiday weekend.  I still have a ways to go, but I am knocking it out.  I think the hardest part for me is when I do get the gifts is wrapping them.  I am the worst wrapper around, but they get wrapped.  I don’t think my 7 year cares to much anyways.

At least the temperatures are warming up around here.  We have been so cold and finally we are back to where we should be for this time of the year.  So lets get to what is going to happen over the next couple of weeks and what is going on with the Heady Pattern.

Lets jump to Thursday.  Lets look at the pattern.  Here is the upper level flow and our next storm system.

You can see the Jet Stream is pretty flat, it should be for this part of the pattern.  Also notice the LOW across Baja California.  That will kick out and give us some rain chances on Friday.  Lets go back to October 28th.  We had a weaker set-up, but the same thing.

Again we had a pretty flat jet with our storm systems on the coasts.  Also you can see the same LOW over California that kicks out.  Now lets jump ahead to Christmas Day.

We have a much stronger wave that kicks out into the central plains.  However, due to the track of the wave it will push into the northern plains.  But a few interesting things here.  It has a neg. tilt, meaning the storm leans back toward the NW.  Because of this, in the spring this is a major severe weather set-up and even on Christmas Day we could get some pretty good storms.  This is the same storm we had around Halloween.  However, the Jet Stream was much weaker and it just couldn’t produce a monster like this.  Back then we just had a weak wave but it was still there.

Due to the weaker Jet, everything was shifted a little farther north, but you can see the two waves kicking out the exact same way.  So what will this do for us?

Well we should have some pretty strong thunderstorms on Christmas afternoon.  Crazy enough, but not snow but thunderstorms.  I will watch all of this over the next few days.  Our next system after this is down the road for next Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Here is a look at next Thursday.

This isn’t a very strong system, but could give us some rain through that period.  But we do need to watch the temperatures.  Arctic air will be close by and we need to see if it stays just north or wants to head south a bit.

Besides this I don’t see a lot of action until around January 12th.  Then things will get going again!  Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Up and down temperatures through the week with rain chances from Wednesday through Saturday.

January 1st-8th:  This will be mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on the 1st with our system working out.  Most of the week should be dry with rain chances returning by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week.  Also rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday as a system works through the area.  Then cold for the rest of the week.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with slight chances for rain or snow on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with weak waves passing by.  Warming up for the weekend with slight chances for rain returning.

January 22nd28th:  Mild with rain on Sunday, then cold and dry through most of the week until our next storm system works in.  Cool with rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  Cool with rain or snow chances on Sunday, then staying cold through the week with slight chances for snow on Tuesday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures by the second half of the week.  Rain chances for Thursday and Friday.  As the colder air works in chances for snow on Saturday.

February 12th-18th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Rain chances for Thursday through Saturday.