Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Hey good Tuesday evening.  I hope your week has started off great!  Our weather has been a little crazy over the past few days with a weekend warm-up, severe thunderstorms on Sunday and then some snow yesterday.  Today, the sun has returned, but again it is cold across the region.  I was looking at some stats.  Since December 23rd, 25 of 32 days have been below average.  That is pretty crazy.  We have had a decently cold winter, but not a ton of snow.  Our season average is about 15″.  We are right at 8″ for the season and to hit average we need to be at about 9-10″ by now.  Lets see how the next month plays out.  Here is a look at the last system that rolled through yesterday.

Now, lets go back one cycle to when this came through last time.  Here is December, 5th.

The difference in December was that we had a little more blocking in Canada and it drove more arctic air down south.  This time around, it looked a little more like mid Octobers version of the pattern.  However, the pattern will block up again like we have seen over the past month.  That means the arctic air will return for extended periods of time.  I still think that is a couple weeks away but some signs of it are popping up.  Lets go to next Thursday.

We are starting to get a little more arctic air starting to build up late next week.  With this system next Thursday, we could see a rain to snow event.  So I will be watching it over the next week.

 

 

Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.

Doug

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#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  The first half of the week will be mild with colder temperatures working in by Thursday.  Rain and snow chances for late Wednesday and Thursday.

February 4th-10th:  Mainly a cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

February 11th-17th:  Mainly a cold week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Thursday.

February 18th-24th:  A cool week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Friday.

February 25th-March 3rd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week will be dry until slight chances for snow by the weekend.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS