I hope your Tuesday is going great so far!  I have been working all morning long with multiple things.  I stay busy with work, blogs, working on my pattern which this is a very important time of the year.  Plus, I am have a lot of work to do with the AMS (American Meteorological Society) board that I am a part of. However, I enjoy every part of it and love to stay busy.

Let me start off with what is going on with the Heady Pattern.  Remember the new pattern sets up each and every year around the 3rd week of September.  Now when I say the pattern, this means how storm systems will react for the entire next year.  The Heady Pattern influences El Nino and La Nina.  We just came out of a fairly strong El Nino and now sit in a very weak to neutral La Nina.  It looks like we will stay in a neutral to weak La Nina through the fall, winter and spring months at this time.  However, this does need to be watched because the new pattern hasn’t set-up yet.  But this is the way it is looking at this time.

Now the recurring cycle inside the pattern has been at 49 days with this past pattern.  I can still see the 49 days pretty well, but you can definitely see the shift in the Jet Stream and how the 49 day cycle doesn’t fit near as well.

However, you can still see our old cycle in our old pattern.  Lets look at today.

500

You can see the systems rotating around each other in eastern Canada.  Plus the system dropping down in the western high plains.  Lets go back about 49-50 days to the 4th of July.

July 4th

The jet is flat due to the time of the year, but the same systems are there.  This is always interesting because we have two cycles going at once.

Our new cycle did start a while back and we have almost completed a full cycle.  Once this has occurred I will be able to really tell how the fall, winter and spring will set-up.  Then I will get even a better view on this once the new pattern sets up the 3rd week of September.  So this is a 3 step process and we are still in step one but about to move to step two.  As of right now here is what I see.

Fall:  Near average temperatures with above average rain continuing.

Winter:  Near average temperatures or just below.  At or just above average snow.  We average about 16″ of snow.

We do have more showers and thunderstorm working in this afternoon.  They will be scattered about across the region.

Afternoon

These will work NE during the evening hours.  The heat will kick in on Wednesday ahead of storm system number 2.

Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms tomorrow from central KS into northern MO.  South of the front should shoot into the 90s with the heat index around 100 degrees.  As this front sags south on Thursday, so will the showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday evening

Pop-up thunderstorms will continue into Friday and Saturday.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot most of the week with pop-up thunderstorms each day.

September 4th-10th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures a little bit cooler on Thursday and Friday before we warm up a bit for the weekend.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances.  Turning cooler for the middle of the week with a warming trend toward the weekend.  Rain chances return for Friday and Saturday.

September 18th-24th:  Warm and dry through the first half of the week.  A little cooler the second half of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week but mainly dry.