Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week has been great so far.  Are you ready for the big commercial holiday, aka V-Day.  If you haven’t gotten your spouse, sig other, partner anything yet, you better get on that.  At least our weather has been warming up the past couple of days.  We have gotten rid of all of the ice from the weekend.  I am amazed that we had 1/4″ of ice from just drizzle.  When you get 24 hours of drizzle that is what happens.  This winter so far has come in with temperatures below average majority of the days.  We have had 2 ice events, and 4 snow events with a total of 10.25″.  We average about 15″ in a season, so we are still a little shy of the average.  I wouldn’t be surprised by any means if we hit our average.  Remember last year we only had 2.5″ of snow and only 2″ the year before.  To be real honest, this pattern isn’t a great one.  It is an sub-par pattern in my book.  We can’t get any big winter storms once again.  So what do that mean for the spring and summer?  We have had a lot of cold fronts, so we will have an active spring with severe weather.  However, the summer is going to be so hot and dry.  We will be wanting the temperatures we have had when August rolls around.  So lets look at what is coming down the pike.  Here is our next storm system on Thursday and Friday.

You can see the exact same pattern about 48 days ago.  Remember, we are on a 48 day cycle this year.

That is December 30th.  We aren’t seeing as much arctic air this time around with our systems.  We are slowly working toward spring, but still we have had our bouts of very cold temperatures over the past couple of weeks.  We will have scattered showers on Thursday and could see a quick snow shower on Friday morning.

Next week, we have another wave that will affect us from Tuesday through Thursday.

This matches up with the weaker version we had back in November.  This would be two cycles ago, or about 96 days ago.

Here is a look at Wednesday.

Now we need to watch that front.  That will most likely be an arctic front, so the cold air could stack very closely behind the front giving us wintry weather.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with warmer temps by mid week.  Much colder temperatures settle in late in the week.  Rain chances from Tuesday through Thursday.  However, we need to watch for some wintry weather on the backside of this system.

February 25th-March 3rd:  A mild first half of the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  As the colder air works in, we could end with wintry weather on Thursday.  Staying cool into the weekend with rain or snow chances on Saturday.

March 4th-10th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances to start the week.  Warming up the second half of the week with rain moving in by the weekend.

March 11th-17th:  Most of the week cold with snow chances on Sunday.  Rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS