I hope your week has started off great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad so far.  I have been keeping myself busy the past couple of days with a sick son and running to the doctor for my migraine stuff.  Plus of course work is a little chunk of the day, lol.  However, I actually prefer to stay busy, I actually feel like my days are productive when I am busy.  Even if I don’t get the things done that I want to get done at least I am getting stuff done if that made any sense at all.  Well we are right on track with the Heady Pattern and right where we should be.  We have this prolonged storm system this week as it should be and as it has been in the past with this pattern.  If you read my blogs much you know that I have been working on my pattern since 1999 when I was in college.  Gary Lezak, meteorologist in Kansas City, also uses a version of this pattern that he calls the LRC.  We both have worked hard to find the details of how this pattern works for many years and have been pretty successful at it and getting more accurate each year as we continue to learn.  A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

So lets look at this system and rain.  Most of the central plains has seen the showers and thunderstorms that continues to push east and weaken tonight.  Some severe weather will continue tonight along the Gulf States but that is about it.  Another batch of rain will surge north on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday AM Precip

You can see the showers and thunderstorms lifting north on Wednesday morning.  Not much severe weather with this, just showers and thunderstorms.  During the afternoon, the scattered storms start to spread north.

Wednesday PM Rain

We will have moderate to heavy rains for central MO, Joplin, most of Arkansas and eastern Texas.  Any severe weather will be in southern Arkansas or eastern Texas.  This batch will work through and weaken as additional thunderstorms work in for Thursday.

Thursday AM

Again on Thursday morning I am not expecting much severe weather, just showers and thunderstorms.  By Thursday afternoon, most of the showers and thunderstorms shift south of I-44

Thursday PM Rain

Now this system is going to take its time getting out of here.  Lets jump to Saturday.

500 Saturday

You can still see the energy across the southern plains.  It is working out but it is still here.  You can see the same thing last cycle on January 22nd and two cycles ago on December 3rd.  Here is January 22nd.

Jan 22nd 500

You can see the deep wave in January and in December we had the same system with the weak energy left behind.

December 3rd 500

WHAT IS TO COME?

After this guy moves out, our next system with showers and thunderstorms that could be strong will be next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with showers and thunderstorms returning on Tuesday and Wednesday.  A little cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for rain returning by Saturday.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be strong to severe on Monday and Tuesday.  Another round of thunderstorms possible on Thursday with cooler temperatures working in the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A nice mild week with thunderstorms working in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe to start the week.  Mild temperatures with showers and thunderstorms sticking around into the middle of the week.  Cooling down for the last few days of the week.

April 10th-16th:  Mild temperatures through the week with a few waves working through.  A few showers on Monday and a slight chance as well on Wednesday.  Thunderstorm chances for Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd:  Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Up and down temperatures most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Saturday.

April 24th-30th:  Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th:  Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system.  The rest of the week looks good.