Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Good Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  It is so cold it is crazy.  It is very hard to get this cold around this part of the country.  We have to have a pretty good snow pack and arctic air for this to happen.  We had 5.5″ of snow in Joplin, which gives us a total of 8.5″ for the season.  We average about 16″, I actually think that has dropped to about 14″ over the past year with climate change.  However, it will warm up over the next few days and this will be a distant memory.  So lets look at the next storm system.

The way it is tracking right now, it should be mainly rain for our area.  However, we could see a little bit of snow on the backside on Sunday night.  So I will keep my eyes on this.  How does this fall with the heady pattern?  Remember, we are about in a 48 day cycle. This storm system moved through in early December and also late October.  Also a weaker version of it back in early September.  Every other cycle like to mirror each other with the pattern.  So lets look at two cycles ago back on October 22nd.

You can see the system right across the central plains with a second system in the pacific northwest.  Lets look at this Sunday.

It is a match to a T.  With our last cycle, we really got the blocking during the month of December and temperatures were pretty cold most of the month.  In fact we have been pretty cold in January, but we have also had some days bounce into the 60s.  This time around, I don’t think we will see a ton of blocking over the next few weeks.  This means a lot of systems will be rain or rain over to snow.  I do expect us to block up in a few weeks the arctic air really returns in February, similar to what we saw around Christmas and New Years.  I will keep you updated.

Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Cool temperatures with rain on Sunday.  We could see a little bit of snow on Sunday night depending on the track of the system.  Cool temperatures through most of the week with very slight chances for showers on Tuesday. Rain and snow chances return for Friday and Saturday.

January 28th-February 3rd:  Mainly a cool to cold week.  Rain and snow chances on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

February 4th-10th:  Mainly another cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

February 11th-17th:  Another cold week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and a slight chance on Thursday.

February 18th-24th:  Cold with rain or snow on Sunday.  The next system with rain and snow chances works in on Friday.

February 25th-March 3rd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week will be dry until slight chances for snow by the weekend.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS