Good afternoon!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine is going pretty good, just staying busy.  I am actually running up to KC this afternoon as I am heading to my migraine doctor this afternoon.  Well one of my doctors at least.  I thought I would do a quick blog update before I hit the road.  At least the weather has been pretty good that past couple of days.  Most of us are still in a lack of winter weather.  Central KS, Western KS, Nebraska and Iowa have had anywhere from 20-30″ of snow this winter.  Then there has been a sharp cut-off in snowfall just south of that.  I knew we would have a lot of storm systems this winter with 75% of them being rain makers.  However, I was hoping that a few of them could produce some snow for us.  So far, this hasn’t worked out for most of us.  We are running out of time quickly.  Wichita, KC, Joplin, Tulsa, NWA are all under 5″ of snow for the winter season.  Joplin is at 2″ and the record low for a season is 2.5″.  I don’t even see a chance right now for at least a week and not a chance for a bigger system until the end of the month.  Let me also point out the chance at the end of the month may be rain.  So lets see what is going on.  We actually have nice weather for the rest of the week.  It will be windy but a nice week with a warm-up moving in.

Wednesday 500

Here is our upper level map for tomorrow.  You can see the huge ridge over the central US.  We have storm systems on each coasts.  This is very similar to what we had two cycles ago back on November 8th.

Nov 8th

This allows us to really warm-up.  Most of us will be well into the 70s on Thursday and Friday.  We will cool down a bit over the second half of the weekend and early next week with a few showers as a cold front pushes through.

Sunday precip

You can see the front drops through on Sunday with a few scattered showers.  Lets look at the upper levels.

Sunday 500

You can see how the ridge is gone in the central US.  This fits just like what we had one cycle ago on January 1st.

Jan 1st

So the first half of next week will be cooler than this week.  We will warm up a bit late next week before our system works in late next week into next weekend.  Besides that, we aren’t going to see a lot of weather action.  This will change, once we get into March, April and May we will see this weaker winter systems really producing.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next week:  A cooler start to the week with temperatures warming up for the second half of the week.  Rain chances increase for Friday and Saturday.

February 29th-March 5th:  Colder with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.  Temperatures will warm up a bit just in time for the weekend with rain chances returning.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.