Good Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been going great so far, just fighting a few migraines which is well normal on a daily basis for me.  I am actually very used to them but today looks to be a better day.  At least the weather has been great this week.  We are going to continue to see great weather across the central plains for the next few days.  This is historically a busy severe week.  Today is the 16 year anniversary of the May 4th, 2003 massive severe weather outbreak.  We had tornadoes from Texas north into Iowa.  In my viewing area, this was really my first big severe weather coverage that I had ever done.  I was a young 24 covering three F-4’s on the ground at the same time going through Franklin, Carl Junction and Pierce City all at the same time.  This day holds a special day in my heart.

However, this year this week is extremely calm across the entire lower 48.  Of course it is May, it won’t last long.  Our next system moves in on Mothers Day.

Sunday 500

Remember, in the Heady Pattern, we are in a 49.5 day cycle and have been since last July.  This is the same system we saw last cycle and well 6 cycles ago as what we had on March 19th.

March 19th

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase across the central plains on Sunday afternoon.  these will mainly be across central KS.

sunday evening

However, chances for thunderstorms will continue to increase on Monday with a severe threat.

Monday evening

Severe threat continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday evening

Lets look at Wednesday

Wednesday evening

So with two systems, we have a severe threat at least through the first half of the week.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Showers and thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Wednesday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Thunderstorm chances return on the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.