Good late morning, I hope you are having a great day so far.  We still have a severe threat for the evening and the overnight hours tonight, but the good news is our threat has greatly dropped.  We had some severe storms that popped up last night along the warm front as it shifted through between 1-4am and these storms continue in northern parts of MO along the front.  This has greatly helped our atmosphere out.  This means we won’t be near as unstable this afternoon as what we could have been if those storms didn’t develop during the overnight hours.  Lets look at our Cape or storm energy.

Cape

Our cape is still decent but could have been double this afternoon if we didn’t have the morning storms.  This will really give the thunderstorms havoc this afternoon as they try to develop.  The thunderstorms will have a very hard time developing and probably won’t until 6-7 pm  Here is a look at our surface map late this afternoon.

Surface

Because the thunderstorms will have a hard time getting going, they won’t even pop-up until the front has made it south to about I-44 in the 6-7 pm range.  Now this is banking on how the atmosphere looks right now.  If for some reason it would recover very quickly, we could see some changes but at this time it doesn’t look that way.  So scattered thunderstorms start to pop-up between 6-7 pm along and south of the cold front.

6-7pm precip

These will be very scattered and mainly along and south of I-44.  So if you live north of I-44, you aren’t going to see much action unless these storms can fire a little earlier.  Once the cap erodes and the low level jet can increase some during the evening hours, the thunderstorms will increase along the front.  Here is a look at the 9-10 pm time frame.

9-11PM

We will have strong to severe storms along and mainly south of I-44 with some large hail and gusty winds.  With these storms we could see some heavy amounts of rain as they hover just south of I-44 through the 11pm-2am time frame.

1AM

After about 3am, most of the storms should start to fall apart and shift south of the area.

3AM

Severe threat: Low/mainly along and south of I-44/main threat is wind, hail and some heavy rains.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, some of these could be severe.  Another wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday with possibly severe thunderstorms.  Mild temperatures with thunderstorms chances returning for Saturday.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm with thunderstorms on the 22nd!!!!! that could be strong to severe.  Warm temperatures stick around with an addition severe threat on Tuesday and Wednesday with our next system working through.  Great temperatures and mainly dry for the rest of the week.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm temperatures with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday that could be severe.  Slight chances for thunderstorms will stick around on Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and warm for the weekend.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe on Sunday and Monday.  A hair cooler for a couple of days during the middle of the week behind this system but warming back up for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.