Good late afternoon!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been super busy but pretty good.  I am trying to get some work done before I get ready for the 5 and 6.  I got my taxes done before I came to work, that was depressing, but that afternoon is getting better, lol.  I was looking over the snowfall records here over the past 30 minutes and a ton of areas in KS, MO, AR and OK are pressing record lows.  In Joplin, the record low for snow in a season is 2.5″.  So far we are sitting at a whopping 2″, lol.  In the 2011-2012 winter we had 2.8″ which was close to the record snow.  We had the storm system yesterday that just missed the area that could have given us some snow but of course it didn’t.  Look at the snowfall from this past system.

snowfall

I almost find the amusing now, but very sad.  If we don’t get a system to come together very quickly we are in serious trouble of setting the record low.  So lets look at the next week for the central plains.  Our next wave rolls in on Sunday.

Sunday 500

This is a little weaker version of the system that rolled through on January 9th.  However, when it did roll through on January 9th, it didn’t do much for us.

January 9th

Again, I don’t expect much.  I think we will see a few showers on Sunday afternoon with cooler temperatures working in late in the day.  It is the next system that should have a little more of a punch.  Lets take a look.

Wednesday 500

I put a circle around this wave because last time this came through 49 days ago it was a little disorganized and split into two different waves.

Jan. 13th

However, if you read my blogs much, with the heady pattern every other cycles like to mirror each other a little bit more.  So if we went back two cycles ago this would be our Thanksgiving day storm.  If you remember that, it was a big rain maker with some flooding rains and a pretty big ice and snow maker from KC to Wichita.  This time around it should behave again more like it did in November and not like in early January.  As of right now it looks like rain will develop across the central plains late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Snow will develop across western KS and start to spread east by Wednesday morning.  Here is a projected look at Wednesday.

Wednesday precip

If we can get the cold air, this could give us snow in the areas that haven’t seen much this winter.  Lets see how this sets up over the next several days.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

This week:  After this system passes by, cooler with partly sunny skies.  However, temperatures should warm up nicely for the weekend.

Next Week:  A few showers and turning cooler on Sunday.  Our next system with showers works in on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Rain and snow chances on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Slight chances for rain will return on Saturday.

March 6th-12th:  Mild temperatures with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  With cooler temperatures working in we could see a rain snow mix on Thursday.  Cooler, but it should be dry the rest of the week.

March 13th-19th:  Cool with showers to start the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances by the weekend with some strong to possibly severe for the weekend.

March 20th-26th:  Mild with thunderstorms on Sunday to start the week.  A second system rolls in on Tuesday with thunderstorms that could be severe with showers sticking around Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler but it should be dry heading into the weekend.

March 27th-April 2nd:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday and then again Friday and Saturday.  Some could be strong to severe by the weekend.

April 3rd-9th:  Showers and cool to start the week on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  The rest of the week will be dry but a little cooler.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.