Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great.  Yes I know, I am on vacation again.  You have to remember that I don’t take any days off during the fall, winter and spring as that is our busy season.  So when the summer comes along it is game on.  I am in Montana this week and it is amazing.  Check out some pics.

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You can see the thunderstorm rolling in as well.  We had to high tale it down the mountain, but a great time.  Temperatures here have been chilly.  Highs around 65 with lows around 40.  Lets just say it has been a shock to my body compared to what we have had back home.  So what will be going on back home.  More thunderstorms.  In fact a batch of thunderstorms will be working across KS & MO through the morning hours.  Most of this will stay north of I-44 but something to watch.  Here is a look at the mid morning hours.

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By late in the day, another round of thunderstorms will start to pop-up.

 

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Some of these could be on the strong side and possibly severe.  The main threat will be hail and wind and the timing will be from 4pm into the overnight hours as the storms slowly sink south into central OK and AR.  By Thursday morning they will die off and we will wait for yet another band to fire up on Thursday afternoon along our cold front that is sinking south.

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Again, some of these could be strong to severe along the state line of KS/OK and into SW MO and NW AR.  As we work into Thursday night, these storms will drive SE into central AR and should affect the Little Rock metro area.  The main threat with these storms will be wind and hail once again.

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Now that I can see the new cycle and I can either forecast off the new or the old 49 as they both work for the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will be come dominant here in about a month or a month and a half.  This is actually really a amazing for me as 5 or 6 years ago I had to wait until about November to find the new cycle.  Over the past few years I have been working on my research and have closed that gap and have figured out a way to get the new cycle pegged down right as it develops which actually ended up being way earlier than what I used to think it did.  What this allows me to do is accurately forecast 2-3 months out 12 months a year which has never been done!  We are now in La Nina, it took its time getting into La Nina but now we are officially in La Nina.  This will influence that pattern when it starts the 3rd week of September.  It doesn’t drive the pattern but it does influence that pattern.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week as our upper level ridge builds right back in.  We will have very slight chances for thunderstorms late in the week.

July 24th- 30th:  A hot start to the week with temperatures decreasing just a bit for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for the thunderstorms to start the week.  Temperatures will heat right back up for the second half of the week with dry conditions.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.