Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your shopping is done, or going great, hey maybe you haven’t started yet.  If you haven’t, tick tock.  I have most of mine done, but I still have a few things I need to pick up and I am stressing about that.  Hopefully I will get those done here over the next two days or I have ran out of time.

Well we are in the active stretch of the pattern as we have had many little systems that have rolled through and even a couple big ones over the past couple of weeks.  The problem has been no cold air.  If we can’t get the blocking up in Canada to push the cold air south we are going to get rain.  We still don’t have the blocking right now, but there are some signs over the next couple of weeks that could change a little bit.  We have a big storm system this weekend that will push cold air very close to most of us.  This will produce a major winter storm across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and up through Kansas.  The question is how far east will this go?  It all depends on the track of the upper low.  First off a storm system has been passing through today.

500

This system is a fairly fast moving system that will cool us down just a bit today.  Showers and thunderstorms will push east but some could be severe across the southern states.

Storms today

As this pushes out, we can focus on the next system over the holiday weekend.

Sunday 500

Look at the massive storm across Texas.  This is a little stronger and farther south than last time, like it should be.  Also it is right on track at about 46-47 days with the Heady Pattern.  Lets go back to November 11th.

November 11th

You can see this same strong system back in November.  It just wasn’t as far south due to the Jet Stream being a little weaker in the fall months.  So the big key is where will that low track.  If it tracks into MO, the snow line tracks farther east.  If it tracks into KS, the snow line stays west.  Lets look at where it looks like it will go right now.  Here is Saturday evening.

Saturday precip

Showers and thunderstorms break out with very heavy rains.  On Sunday the colder air works in.

Sunday precip

On Sunday we would have a wintry mix from KC south to Joplin. Then heavy snow in southern KS and OK back through Texas.  This system lifts NNE on Monday.

Monday precip

On Monday the heavy band of snow lifts from SE KS through NW MO.  Now that is only if this system tracks out like this.  As of now I would say the heaviest snows will fall from the panhandles through north central OK and up through central and NE KS.  As you work SE lighter amounts will fall.  In the heavy swath of snow a foot could easily happen and needs to be watched.  This whole track and whole system needs to be watched closely.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the this week:  Mild with highs in the 50s and 60s through Saturday.  Rain increases late Christmas and Saturday.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow on Sunday, with all snow possible at this time on Monday.  Heaviest snow across central OK, through KS.  Cold and dry through the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return with slight chances for rain by the weekend.

January 3rd-9th:  A mild start to the week but cooler temperatures working in.  Rain and snow chances through the beginning of the week.  The second half of the week will be cooler and mainly dry.

January 10th-16th:  Mild with slight chances for rain on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit late in the week with rain and snow chances by Saturday.

January 17th-23rd:  A cold and dry start to the week.  The second half of the week will be mild with slight chances of rain.