Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been going pretty good so far.  I have been fighting my sleep pattern this week, ugh.  I say or write this at 1am, but I have to stay on a strict sleep pattern or my migraines become much worse.  However, I am going to knock this sucker out and get a little sleep.  I need to run some errands this morning and pick up my boat as it has been in the stereo shop as I have been beefing up the stereo system.  I still have some 1990’s teenager in me where I want to here this KICK in the system when I am on the lake.

Well it has been a gloomy week so far and the scattered showers will stick around through the morning hours.  Lets take a look at this slow moving system.

500 today

The problem with this guy has been being cut-off from the main flow of the jet.  So he is a very slow moving.  Finally he is kicking out of here over the next 24 hours or so.  However, we have needed the rain and we are still way behind.  Here are the stats in Joplin.

This month:  1.6″

Year:  About 5.5″

Average:  10.5″

Behind by: About 5″

So we need the rain and we will see the rain working out of here this afternoon.

precip today

As the back side of the low passes by tomorrow, we could see a few showers across the southern plains.

precip thrusday

Friday and Saturday look great for the central plains with temperatures warming through the 70s.  The beginnings of our next system will roll in on Sunday.  Sunday through Tuesday, we will see a couple weak upper level waves working through with a front across the central plains.  This will fire off a few scattered storms through the period.  Here is a look at Sunday afternoon.

Sunday precip

Same situation for Monday and into Tuesday.

Tuesday precip

Finally by next Thursday, a strong upper level low will kick out which is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.

Next Thursday 500

In the circle area, is the area of possible severe weather.  This is the exact same we saw 49.5 days ago.  Lets go back to March 8th.

March 8th 500

Thunderstorms will be likely next Thursday and Friday.

Friday precip

Some of these could be strong to severe.  In fact I see many systems over the next several weeks that fall exactly as they should with the pattern.  I will keep you updated and I promise the blogs won’t be as long, lol.  I just haven’t blogged on here in a while.  Long range forecast is below.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Partly sunny with a few pop-up storms from Sunday through Wednesday.  Most of us will stay dry, but the ones that do pop-up could be on the strong side.  Strong to severe storms on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.