I haven’t gotten a ton of blogging in recently with my Colorado and Montana trips.  However, I have been back from the Montana trip for a couple of days now it was fantastic.  I am addicted to jumping on a 4-wheeler and finding a trail that takes me a couple thousand feet up a mountain.  We can’t find that around here.  Now I need to get some lake time in which I haven’t been doing over the past month or so.  I hope all of you are having a great week.  I am getting back in the swing of things and dealing with these hot and humid conditions.  Holy cow, when I was driving home and stopped for gas, the farther south I got the hotter and more humid it got.  I knew when I had made it into MO.  It was more of rolling out of the car saying “Ugh, we are back in MO”  However, MO is one of the most beautiful states around!  We are so  hot and humid due to the huge ridge of high pressure over us.

500 today

This is going to continue into the weekend.  However, the high will break down just a bit.

Sunday 500

Because our high will break down some, this will allow some scattered thunderstorms to work in for the begging of next week.

Sunday night precip

Scattered thunderstorms with this front will stick around until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Now that I can see the new cycle and I can either forecast off the new or the old 49 as they both work for the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will be come dominant here in about a month or a month and a half.  This is actually really a amazing for me as 5 or 6 years ago I had to wait until about November to find the new cycle.  Over the past few years I have been working on my research and have closed that gap and have figured out a way to get the new cycle pegged down right as it develops which actually ended up being way earlier than what I used to think it did.  What this allows me to do is accurately forecast 2-3 months out 12 months a year which has never been done!  We are now in La Nina, it took its time getting into La Nina but now we are officially in La Nina.  This will influence that pattern when it starts the 3rd week of September.  It doesn’t drive the pattern but it does influence that pattern.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid with slight chances for thunderstorms, especially the first half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.