I hope you are having a great work week so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  I have a lot I need to get done today before work.  I feel like I can never catch up.  I am sure a lot of you feel the same way.  I have a couple days to get stuff done then I am off to Boston for a few days for a wedding.  Stacey (better half) has a high school friend that is getting married.  I am looking forward to that trip.  If you have never been to Boston, that is a pretty cool city.  Well minus the Patriots, ha ha, go Chiefs.  Stacey is going to kill me is she reads this!

Starting this Friday, we enter the active stretch of the Heady Pattern that will last until about January 15th.  From January 15th through Feb. 1st will be calm, then the whole month of February is active once again.  The first half of March is calm, the second half of March and the first half of April is active.  I think you see the trend here.  Here is the given, spring is going to rock and roll.  We are going to see one of the most active severe weather seasons we have seen in a while.  Now the winter is going to be active, but will it be all rain?  We need to get some arctic air down here.  This wasn’t a problem that past two winters as we had cold winters.  This isn’t going to be the case this winter.  We need the AO to block up a couple times this winter.

AO

Here is the Arctic Oscillation. If the AO stays positive all winter, we stay warm.  If it can go negative some we will get some arctic air.  You can see from above it wants to go negative here in about a week.  This is in the active stretch of weather.  So lets look at the next two systems.  System one moves in this weekend.

Sunday 500

Here is the upper level map with our next system for Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Lets compare back to October 28th, this is about 46 days.

October 28th

This is the same exact system.  Now, this system looks to be mainly a rain maker across the central plains.  Here is at the surface for Saturday.

Saturday night precip

We could get some cold air in here on Sunday, but I think most of it will stay across the northern plains.  So lets jump to next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Next Tuesday

The models want this to be a very fast moving wave that doesn’t dig south.  However, by the pattern it should dig farther south.  Lets go back to Halloween.

October 31st

You can see on October 31st it dug farther south.  That is something I want to watch.  Plenty more systems will move in after this before and right after Christmas.  A ton to talk about.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the week:  Warm and partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms work in for Saturday.

Next Week:  Left over rain and a few snow showers on Sunday.  A quick rebound in temperatures on Monday ahead of our next wave for Tuesday.  Turning cooler with rain and snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler the rest of the week until the weekend.  Mild temperatures return for Saturday with rain chances.

December 20th-26th:  Mild with rain chances to start the week.  As cooler air works in we will see rain and snow chances on Monday.  Then the colder temperatures settle in for the middle of the week.  Slight chances for rain and snow on Christmas Eve and Day.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain and snow chances to start the week with cold temperatures.  We will see mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with rain chances by the 1st.  Colder air works in for the weekend with some snow chances.

January 3rd-9th:  A cold start to the week with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cold most of the week with snow chances again on Wednesday.  Warmer temperatures working in for the weekend.