Good Wednesday morning!  I hope you are having a great work week.  I am trying to get some work done before I do house stuff and go to work.  Our weather here has been great in Joplin, MO over the past several days.  Our average high for this time of the year is 82 degrees and we should shoot to about 86 this afternoon.  However, the entire country has changes moving in over the next several days.  Let me show you what I am looking at.

Wednesday 500

This a 500mb map is a good chunk up in the atmosphere.  I love looking at these maps because I can see the Jet Stream but I can also see the storm systems energy.  Where you see the X, that is the little waves.  Where you see the yellow, that is the energy flowing in. If we look in the Pacific NW, we can see a storm system digging in with energy whipping out into the northern plains.  This has already been producing rain and much needed rain in the NW and the northern Rockies.  This system will drop a cold front through the midwest on Friday with cooler temperatures and work east over the weekend.

Now the 2014-2015 Heady Pattern is just about dead.  That pattern started around the 20th of September last year and held until about a month ago.  Over the past month it has been morphing into the new pattern that will be completely set here in just a few days.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  I like what I am seeing.  Do you notice how this system is diving hard south into northern California?  This is going to continue to happen as we work through the fall and winter months.  This will create much needed rain for the western 1/3rd of the country.

So lets look at the cycle.  The old cycle was roughly 47 days with last years pattern.  However, that cycle has really been dead for about a month as well.  As the old pattern has been dying you could see small hints of it but it is gone!  So how do I long range forecast?  Well their is always a transition cycle that develops in the summer months but more importantly the new cycle develops.  The new cycle always starts in May, June or July.  This just depends on El Nino or La Nina.  Now if you wait until the fall you can just eyeball it see where the cycle is.  However, if you want to find it in the summer months like I always do then I have found a process you have to go through that you don’t even want me to get into, lol.  However, you can’t just eyeball it you will way off.  But the system I have found works 100% accurate which is great.

So as of right now we still have transition cycle going on plus our new cycle as well.  You can see one of these cycles here back on July 27th which is roughly 52 days ago.

July 27th

Now we are still in the old pattern on July 27th, but you can definitely see a different cycle.  This is showing the same look as above.  Without giving out to much information, lol this is either the transition or the new cycle.

I will keep you completely updated and I will continue to expand this blog for you.  Because I live in Joplin here is the long range forecast for KS, MO, AR and OK.  However, I will give you more information over time.

Doug

Long Range Forecast:

Next Wednesday:  Mild with a few showers.

Next Thursday:  Mild and partly sunny.

Next Friday:  Mild and partly sunny

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

September 27th-October 3rd:

A mild start to the week with a system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  We will cool down and dry out for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74