Good Wednesday midday!  I hope you had a great and safe holiday weekend and got a chance to get outside and do something over the very warm and humid weekend.  We did have a lot of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but most of the weekend was at least some what decent dodging storms.  I actually got down to Table Rock Lake for a couple of days.  I am a huge lake fan and love to get there when I can.

Have you noticed we have been fairly wet over the past 3 weeks?  It is system after system after system.  Well we are in the same pattern but in a different cycle.  The cycle has switched and it has taken the most active part of our last pattern and just thrown it at us over and over again.  Now without confusing you, we are still in the same 2015-2016 pattern and will be for the next few months.  But the new cycle that will be here for at least the next year has arrived and will get stronger and stronger over the next several months.  I will give you much more on this over the slow summer months.  I think this is interesting and sums up the past 7 or 8 months.  In Joplin we have had 9 severe weather events (we average 8-10 by June 10th) but haven’t had big tornado events because the storm systems have matured just west of us.  Look where the tornado watches have been this spring.

Tornadoes

What amazes me about this is this is the exact same spot that had very little if any snow during the winter.  Why?  All of the storm systems matured just to the west.  SAME PATTERN, incredible!

We don’t have to deal with any severe weather this week or lets say very little.  We will have scattered thunderstorms over the next few days.  We have a weak upper level low that will slowly move across the southern plains.

500 today

You can see this upper level low just west of Texas slowly working east.  It will give us scattered storms the rest of the week.  During the afternoon hours today, more thunderstorms will pop-up across the central and southern plains.  I am not expecting anything severe, but a few stronger storms are possible.  2pm

Here is a look at 2pm.  We will continue to see scattered thunderstorms through the evening hours.

9pm

Once we lose the heating of the day, thunderstorms will start to fall apart.  This will occur over the next few days as well.  Here is a look at Thursday afternoon.

Thursday precip

Much of the same on Friday.

Friday precip

Finally by Saturday, our wave slowly starts to work east and our rain chances start to decrease.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Warm and nice to start the week with pretty good temperatures across the region.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, besides that we look pretty good.

June 12th-18th:  Another warm week across the area with a few waves working through during the week.  We will have chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.  Temperatures heating up late in the week.

June 19th-25th:  A hot start to the week with a few thunderstorms by Tuesday that will cool us down for the middle of the week.  The rest of the week should be dry with great temperatures.

June 26th-July 2nd:  The heat returns with thunderstorm chances by the middle of the week.  As we see a couple waves work through, the chances for thunderstorms will last into the weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with a few thunderstorms to start the week, then hot and dry the rest of the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot with slight chances for storms to start the week.  Stay hot most of the week with a slight chance for storms by the weekend.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.