Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine is shaping up pretty decent as I have stayed busy with work and stuff at home.  I need to get some errands ran before I head into work today and hopefully a few things around the house.  There is never enough hours in the day!  I am sure a lot of you know how that feels.  My son is pumped up for school to start here in a couple of weeks which I think is nuts.  When I was a kid we didn’t start until after Labor Day.  Whatever floats his boat I guess.  Just as long as he knows we are still hitting the lake every weekend!

Well, we continue with the very hot and humid conditions across the region.  We only hit 100 degrees a couple of time last summer and never hit 100 the summer before.  However, we average hitting 100 about 3-5 times per summer.  In 2011 and 2012, we hit 100 over 30 times each summer.  Those were both very dry summers and when you don’t have much humidity you can easily pop above 100 degrees.  When you have a summer with a lot of humidity like this summer, it is very hard to get above 100.  I guess you have to pick your poison on that one.

We have had a few scattered thunderstorms across the region and central plains through the morning hours today.  These will slowly die off over the next few hours and allow the temperatures to spike into the upper 90s this afternoon.

Temperatures

We are still dominated by our big upper level  high that is producing the heat and humidity across the region.

500 mb

This keeps most of the thunderstorms north of the high pressure.  As the high breaks down just a bit toward the weekend, we will see the thunderstorms sink a little farther toward the south.  Lets jump into Friday.

Friday

We will see a front sagging south into north OK and southern MO that should produce a few scattered thunderstorms.  This will also continue into the weekend.  Take a look at Saturday.

Saturday

It won’t be a wash-out for these areas, but there will be scattered thunderstorms.

We are still right on track with the heady pattern.  The old cycle of 49-50 days is still rolling but fading away.  The new cycle continues to take shape and it really showings signs now of at least being equal to the old 49 day cycle and will now become the dominant cycle.  This is right on schedule with what should happen as it has now been in place for about 6 weeks.  I have a pretty good idea what the fall is looking like and starting to get a grasp on the winter and next spring.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm to hot start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through the middle of the week.  Hot and mainly dry the second half of the week.

August 14th-20th:  The week will start hot and dry with warm temperatures the second half of the week with chances of thunderstorms.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Most of the week will be on the hot side with thunderstorm chances heading into the holiday weekend.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.