Good morning, I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been busy but good.  I have been spending the past few days with Chad Crilley.  Chad is a major weather nut that lives in San Diego.  He contacted me back in the spring of 2011, and told me he wanted to come out and see some severe weather.  Chad was only 12 at the time and I was thinking sure, if he was really serious.  I talked to Chad’s mom over the next couple of months and we got it all set for Chad and his mother to fly to Joplin.  I looked at the pattern to figure out when we could possibly see some severe weather.  I chose May 22nd, 23rd and 24th.  Chad and his mother flew into Joplin airport about 2 hours prior to the Joplin tornado.  They had to take shelter in Applebee’s during the tornado on 32nd street.  Chad stayed with me at work over the next couple of days as we were obviously very busy.

I have stayed in touch with Chad and actually saw him and his family last summer when my family made a trip to San Diego.  Chad came back out and has stayed with me the past few days to job shadow as he is now a 17 year senior in high school.  Of course as he flew in on Sunday we had thunderstorms.  I took him up to KC yesterday to meet my mentor Bryan Busby and Gary Lezak.  Here is us with Bryan at KMBC channel 9.

Chad

At least the weather looks decent over the next few days.  Our next decent system across the region rolls in on Friday.

Friday precip

This should give most of KS, MO, OK and AR scattered showers Friday afternoon.  As the colder air works in, we can’t rule out a few snow showers Friday night.  However, the next bigger system is next Tuesday and Wednesday.  So lets look back at the Heady Pattern.  Remember we are roughly on a 50 day cycle.  So lets go back two cycles which is about 100 days.

Dec.14th

You can see the big system digging across the southern Rockies heading out into the plains.  So lets go back one cycle which is about 50 days ago.

Feburary 2nd

You can see on February 2nd, we had that same exact system.  So lets look at next Tuesday and Wednesday.  The models are trying and SHOULD produce that same system.

Tuesday night 500

 

You can see the data is trying to produce this same system.  This should be our next shot at thunderstorms and possibly some strong to severe storms.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Warming up early in the week with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances returning by Saturday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A fairly mild week with thunderstorms chances with our next system on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe to start the week. Mild temperatures with showers and thunderstorms sticking around into the middle of the week. Cooling down for the last few days of the week.

April 10th-16th: Mild temperatures through the week with a few waves working through. A few showers on Monday and a slight chance as well on Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances for Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday. Up and down temperatures most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th: Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday. The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th: Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe. The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st: A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system. The rest of the week looks good.